The term ‘Little Ice Age’ was coined in 1939 and focused on environmental impact in the North Atlantic. It refers to a period of widespread glacial expansion and cooling from 1300-1850. While today’s environmental reality acknowledges climate change as global, most assessments of the Little Ice Age follow Western narratives. As European climates became colder and wetter, China was colder than ever with scant rainfall—a deadly combination for agriculture.
Timothy Brook, in The Price of Collapse: The Little Ice Age and the Fall of Ming China, explores the climate’s role in the decline of the powerful Ming dynasty. Though not an environmental or economic historian, he was drawn to climate issues after observing rapid grain price increases, examining how climate fluctuations led to crop failures, rising food prices and widespread famine, which contributed to the dynasty’s instability.
However, we must also consider how this environmental perspective on the Ming dynasty’s fall reflects modern historical narratives that increasingly incorporate climate factors. Brook’s findings were published in 2023, at a time of growing global awareness and concern about climate change. This raises questions about how much weight this interpretation should hold compared to more traditional political and economic explanations. Climate may have been a key factor, but it did not act alone in bringing about the dynasty’s downfall.
Whilst the fall of the Ming is often associated with the Manchu attack, civilians weren’t as worried about the Manchu’s coming over the wall as the price and availability of grain. Brook argues that the severe climatic conditions led to agricultural failures, economic distress and social unrest which the Ming administration struggled to manage. Insufficient food supplies brought about by the hostile climate yielding poor harvests resulted in social unrest that worked well to bring about political change.
Whilst the Ming collapse cannot be entirely attributed to the climate, it must be brought into the narrative as a factor. This natural disaster was not understood by civilians, who instead interpreted the famine through a traditional lens. In imperial China, natural disasters were often perceived as expressions of divine displeasure, warning signs that the ruling dynasty had failed in its duties and that change was imminent. The Ming dynasty’s Mandate of Heaven was over. This philosophical concept that a ruler’s legitimacy depended on maintaining harmony between heaven and earth highlights the huge impact had by the Little Ice Age in Ming China, as the people lost faith in the Ming regime. Therefore, the Little Ice Age played a significant role in shaping political conditions that allowed for the rise of a new Chinese dynasty, one that ruled over China for centuries.